EXPECTATION AND REALITY ABOUT COMPUTERS IN 50 YEARS
-Report-
Jorge López Yagüe
INDEX
1. Abstract Page 3
2. Introduction Page 4
3. Present research Page 6
4. Final conclusion Page 10
5. Annexes Page 11
6. Bibliography Page 12
ABSTRACT
Purpose:
Give an accurate and real vision of the future of the computers in 50 years from now.
Methodology:
Firstly, and as an introduction, we show how writers, scientists, directors from years ago or from present days have given their own guessings and expectations about the future, some times successfully.
Secondly, present research is reviewed. Yet being more, these are, supposedly, the most important ones.
Finaly, from the second point, we give our expectation about computers in 50 years.
Conclusions:
There already is still a long way to go in computer science. We are just at the beginning but things move quickly. Computers will be more powerful and smaller with time but new kinds of computers will appear and again those one will have to be improved.
But computers are not only present in PC’s. Robots are computers and a new generation of them is being created that could change our world with their help. But computers could also affect to medicine, sports, vehicles and so on.
A selection of present research lines could help us imagine how the future will be.
INTRODUCTION
In order to introduce the topic some previous research have been made. First of all in the past, how ancient scientists guessed about our time and secondly, how our present writers, directors and artists guess about our future.
In the old days:
Leonardo Da Vinci (1452 – 1519):
He was fascinated about human anatomy and the ability to fly. In his era there was no real scientifically based methodology so he tried to learn through drawings made by himself.
In his attemps of learn he left us a huge amount of drawings. His fliying devices never worked but his designs were very detailed and were much like our present helicopters. Evenmore one or two of them after a few changes made by present scientists have worked. One of this examples is a bamboo hand glider.
But his main contribution was his anatomy drawings. With a risky for himself he dissected human bodies and draw everything he saw. These sketches have arrived to our era and have been very useful for our own science.
Jules Verne (1828 – 1905):
He was an adventure literature writer but some inventions appeared in his books that were exactly like some current ones. How could he guess them? Lots of his friends were scientists and when he started a novel, he first asked them for imformation. This way he could give an accurete vision of the future. Some examples were:
-The moon rocket in “From the Earth to the Moon” (1865). In this book also he tells how mankind reach the Moon when this in fact would happen in July the 20th of 1969, a 104 years later.
-The submarine that appears in “20.000 leagues under the sea” (1870). Submarines already existed but they were never as advanced as his ‘Nautilus’. We have to wait until, at least, 1900.
Arthur C. Clarke (1917 – 2008):
He was a science fiction writer. Based on one of his short talkes “The Sentinel”, published in 1948, “2001: A Space Odyssey” was filmed in 1968. We can see in it things such as space rockets, videophones, human-shape robots that were not exist until 50 years later.
But More important than this tale was a paper published in 1945 and called “Extra-Terrestial Relays – Can Rocket Stations Give Worldwide Radio Coverage?”. He explained in it the advantages for telecomunications of an geostationary orbit, which means that a rocket orbits at the same speed as the Earth. Years later that is what we use, for instance, in GPS satellites.
Nowadays:
We can find a lot of guessings in films, such as robotic skeletons (“Terminator”, 1984), cyberspace (“Tron”, 1982), hyperspace (“Star wars”, 1977) and so on.
But the best examples are in books because normally they have a better scientifical basis. We can give two clear examples:
-Space elevator: Described by Charles Sheffield (1935-2002) in his book “The web between the worlds” (1979). The idea is a big pipe that would link the Earth with a space station on top of it. It should last a few hours to reach the outerspace.
-Dyson sphere: It is called after the writer that describes it: Freeman Dyson (1923 - ). He wrote it on a paper from 1960 called “Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infra-Red Radiation”. The idea is to surround the Sun with satellites with solar panels and send the energy to Earth. Another way to do it is placing the satellites around the Earth and catching solar energy. This way, we have a renewable source of energy for the entire Earth.
Isaac Asimov (1920 – 1992):
He is one of the most famous science fiction writers. But his major contribution was the three laws of robotics:
-A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
-A robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
-A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.
Even when these laws sound quite good, they are impossible to implement. This is because of the subjective way in which they are written. First of all a robot should be able to recognize a human being or what injure means. But simplier than that it is how you transform these laws in a mathematical and logical lenguage a machine can understand. Anyway, these laws are practical for robot inventors if they want a way to follow. Yet when they are useless in the military industry, for instance.
Other guessings of Asimov were:
-Sources of energy: “The Gods themselves” (1972). Describes a “gate” to a parallel universe which humans drain energy.
-Personal robots: “I,robot” (1950).
PRESENT RESEARCH
Quantum computers:
It is a computer that works with atoms and micro-particles.
In classical computing the evolution follows the Moore law. In simple words: every 18 months the number of transistors will double and its cost will reduce. But in a certain point, scientists cannot continue reducing the size of the transistors. That’s because if they are smaller, they are going to be affected by subatomic laws. To solve this problem, the quantum computers appeared theoretically. Years later, there are some prototypes. In general, all quantum computers have the same problems: they have to work near the absolute zero and in a complete vacuum.
Around 1998 is built the first 3-qubit (quantum bit) processor in the MIT. Normally an atom is hit with a laser and ions are created. Then that ions are captured in magnetic fields to create qubits. It is also usual to use photons because they could be directed through an optical fibre at the speed of light, literally.
Right now, quantum computers are being investigated to send save information. This is because with atoms we do not need to encrypt the data, atoms react if someone tries to read them and we can notice it. The problem is how to send the qubits. Even when they could travel in an optical fibre, lots of them are lost in the travel and they could only be sent in distances of a few thousand of meters.
But the important point is its calculating capacity. Qubits do not have only the 1 or 0 states, they could have at the same time 0 and 1 and that provides a powerful parallel computing: a 500-qubit processor is equal to a classical one with 10^150 processors, what, in fact, is impossible to build.
There are thousands of present investigations that may make us think that a quantum computer could be the future computers. In the next link appears a resume of them in the world:We have also D-Wave company that claims they have built the first commercial quantum computer with a price of US$10 million. Actually, just one person has bought it: Lockheed Martin. We do not have any information about it so we cannot kwon if it is a real quantum computer, how it is working ot other features. But if it is real, is a big new step to the future.
Robots:
It is hard to say how robots are going to be in 50 years. We can focus on present investigations and trying to guess their evolution.
First of all we have to talk about ASIMO. Not the first but the most advanced robot at the moment. It is being developed by Honda. It is a human-shapep robot (which proper name is android) and with a certain programming could do several things such as walk, run, climbing stairs, etc.
The last version of this andriod (shown to the public on November 2011) weighs 48 kg. and measures in heigh 1,30 m. It could be controlled by a BCI (Brain Computer Interface) which means that a person with electrodes in his head can control the robot just with his thoughts and it is demonstrated that ASIMO follows the instructions with an 90,6% of success. Furthermore, this new model has its own independence because it has movement anticipates, an improved artificial intelligence and more sensors. In addition it can make some expressions from signs language, introduce himself and recognise human voices (even when more than person is talking at the same time). In spite of all of these, it’s far away from movie robots but it is in development yet so we can really imagine what the future will bring. In the annexes it is possible to find web links to ASIMO’s videos.
In the other hand of ASIMO which slogan is “a robot for helping people”, are military robots. We can find for example “BigDog”. It is a transport robot for hard grounds that can travel at 6,4 km./h. carrying 150 kg. It is being developed by Boston Dynamics in collaboration with the army. BigDog can walk on iced ground and recover the balance if it is hit. The last information about this robot was on November 2011 and shows how the robot has changed its name to AlphaDog and can manage with more weight running faster.The other military robot is “Petman”, also from Boston Dynamics. In fact is the same kind of robot that ASIMO, a walk (and running) andriod, but with warlike objectives. It imitates the human body features in order to test military armours, guns and so on. Right now it just runs on a treadmill and does not have head but the company has announced that they think they will have the entire robot (with an articulated head) for 2012.
Robotic exoskeleton:
It is called HAL (Hybrid Assistive Limb). It is a simple device. A robotic structure wrap the body. The idea is the robotic parts do the job instead of muscles.Brain communicates the orders to HAL through electrical impulses. Some receptors are placed in the muscles and connected to the machine. HAL interprets the impulses and reproduces the movement.
It is presently a commercial product made by “Cyberdine” and it can be hired for US$2,000 per month and the cost to purchase the suit is from $42,000-$59,000 dollars. They are trying to sell it to disables people. For instance people with a severed member could use this suit to replace its lost being able to walk again.
The problem with the suit is that the person that wants to use it needs a lot of training in order to dominate perfectly the movements. In another case an accident could happen.
Computer clothing:
The idea is to include small processors (almost nano-processors) into the clothes. If something strange happens a signal is sent to advise another person.
Dr. Sundaresan Jayaraman, an engineer from the Georgia Institute of Technology is investigating this kind of clothing. In fact, he has developed a shirt that contains cables and microchips.
The shirt could not be used daily because the components broken by washing. Also they do not have a general purpose, you have to make one shirt for each specific task you want.
For instance, this kind of shirts has been used to measure the heart rate in a sportman while he is running and control if something wrong happens.
FINAL CONCLUSION
From this point onwards everything is guessing. But using present day research as a base is easier to predict the future of computers.
First, if we apply the Moore law, PCs could be built in in any object (moviles , bracelets...) and with the new screens technologies (for instance, the new flexibles screens shown in CES (Consumer Electronic Show) on 6th January 2011 in Las Vegas, Nevada), and they will be much more powerful.
But the future is in quantum computers. These type of devices would not be for personal use. They would be in companies and goverments’ hands but their computing power will be above normal PCs. This would be due to the conditions under which they have to work which will raise up their price. One of their main use will be sending information because of their speed (the speed of light with photons). But their computing power will allow them solve problems impossible for normal computers. So their purpose will be that of an analysis and mathematic tool. Maybe if robotic A.I. were advanced enough these two technologies could be integrated and create a big intelligent computer, but this is just speculating.
Although that last stantment could be wrong, what is true is that the robotic industry is improving a lot in a short time. Honda improve its ASIMO every year with new abilities. Armies funds lots of new proyects based in robots, but more important, both, ASIMO, and military robots, are anthropomorthic robots that in the future will help us in our diary work. But rigth now the best example is ASIMO. It can avoid humans where they are walking and use things without breaking them. Other robots as BigDog allow us to think that in the future we are not going to do more effort carring things. But moreover, if we combine the technology of all these robots we can have intelligent robots as pets, robotic servants or whatever we could imagine.
Apart from those technological advances, the less common ones will change the world too. Things like computing clothes and HAL are going to revolutionize medicine. When a person has a problem the chips in his shirt warn the hospital and an emergency could be avoided. People with muscle problems or diseases could walk again or live a more normal life. Also, with robotic suits that help you, less accidents would happen in factories and people would not be so tired and illnesses will be abnormal.
As it is known, technollogy, and computers specificly, evolve very quickly so,in fact, we cannot imagine exactly what the future will bring.
ANNEXES
ANNEXES
ASIMO’s videos:
BigDog’s video:
Petman’s:
HAL’s videos:
Sundaresan Jayaraman’s CV:
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Discovery Channel Documentary “2057”:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1537644238897941086&hl=en
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1537644238897941086&hl=en
Forums:
Information:
Others:
- “Quantum computing and cryptology” seminar at the E.U.I
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